By R. Sasankan

India's upstream companies are swarming all over the Andaman Basinto find oil and natural gas reserves in what promises to become the country's new energy frontier. The buzz around the Andamans basin - which lies in the junction between the Indian and Burmese tectonic plates - just grew shriller after petroleum minister Hardeep Puri said energy-starved India was close to a major oil/gas discovery in the region, validating early prognostications of significant reserves. Geologists believe that the Andaman-Nicobar basin has high-value, deep water hydrocarbon potential. Studies indicate the presence of multiple petroleum systems; mud volcanoes in the Middle and South Andaman show oil/gas.

India's upstreamcompanies have so far drilledabout 20 exploration wells in the Andaman offshore basin. After the so-called No Go Zones were opened in 2022, a new phase of exploration has begun. In 2025, Oil India reported an "occurrence of natural gas" in the Vijayapuram-2 well in the Andaman offshore. This is considered a highly positive development and is likely to spur further exploration. ONGC has launched an ambitious, deep-water campaign in the region, targeting depths of up to 5,000 metres in the search for significant reserves.

The question now is this: Is the hype around the Andamans Basin for real? The upstream companies have been drilling there for quite a few years now but have nothing really big to show. The petroleum minister's comment now puts them in a spot. I spoke with a couple of senior executives ofthese companies and they say that there are still no signs of a big commercial discovery. Admittedly, the region is a "frontier area" with high growth potential. But no one is willing to hazard a guess as to how many commercial oil or gas fields they will discover. Early estimates assessed the potential of the basin at around 371 MMTOE. The recent, more optimistic but unconfirmed reports suggest massive, yet-to-be-fully-appraised deep water resources.

Is it possible that these Indian companies lack the expertise to find fields with significant reserves without some outside support? Both ONGC and Oil India are rated as extremely competent in the E&P area. Still, they have sought help from foreign companies in certain areas of exploration. Sources say foreign companies and global experts have been involved in the oil and gas exploration in the Andaman Sea. As of 2025, India is seeking partnerships with companies like Petrobras, BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil for deep water exploration in the region.

Readers may wonder why I am repeatedly using the term "commercial discovery" instead of just an oil and gas discovery. India makes a large number of oil and gas discoveries every year but most of them are commercially unviable and never go into production. This is one of the main reasons why we do not see a great uptick in domestic crude production. It is not the number of discoveries but the size of the discovery that matters.

I have no reason to disbelieve what petroleum minister Hardeep Singh Puri has said. I am sure the statement was made with utmost sincerity. But a certain degree of scepticism wells up because India's history with commercial oil and gas discoveries has been very patchy. The oil sector ripples with surprises and a big discovery is often serendipitous.

I know the vagaries of India's upstream business and have reported on its tortuous trysts with destiny since 1981. I have had occasion to interact with geologists, both Indian and foreign, and the production experts of both ONGC and Oil India. The presentsituation in Andamans reminds me of the confusion that prevailed among ONGC experts before the discovery of Bombay High field in 1974. Geologists in ONGC knew that Bombay offshore was highly prospective but were confused about the exact locations where they should drill. That is when the Russian geologists came to their rescue. They identified the precise locations and asked ONGC to drill there, which led to the discovery of Bombay High. The Russians used to help India in certain areas in those days under the then Indo-Soviet friendship agreement. It is a different matter that ONGC later debunked the Russians who never protested.

In an earlier article in this column, I had written about the Bombay High story while commenting on the country's ambitious exploration plan unveiled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.Russia is one of the major oil producers in the world and some of its geologists are rated as outstanding. Why can't India's ministry of petroleum prevail on ONGC and Oil India to rope in a couple of Russian geologists, preferably retired and with good track records? They might just achieve the success that their peers did in the discovery of Bombay High. Once again the caveat: this suggestion is no reflection on the competenceof our geologists. We must acknowledge the fact some Russian geologists have a very deep understanding of India's sedimentary basins. Russian geologists do not go scouting for global assignments. India's political leadership can guide the India's upstream companies in such sensitive matters. And Mr Hardeep Singh Puri is the right man to do just that.