September 30, 2026: Indian refiners expect Russian oil supplies to tighten further in October and November as Russian exports fall and Chinese buyers compete for cargoes, Reuters reported on Monday, citing four trade sources. The shortfall is pushing refiners towards costlier alternatives for the rest of the year, according to the report.

Russian oil arrivals to India are set to fall to about 1.75 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, the lowest since April, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. Arrivals had already dropped 16.5% in August from July to about 2.1 million bpd, trade data showed, though Russia remained India’s main supplier, ahead of the UAE and Venezuela.

In recent months, China has stepped up purchases as Middle East supplies tightened during the Iran war, Reuters reported. “Demand from China has been really high. They were willing to book cargoes in advance and to pay firmer prices compared to Indian refiners,” a source involved in selling Russian crude told Reuters.

(Source: Oil and Gas)