September 30, 2026: Crude prices continue to see wild swings in the international market. The prices hit a high of $108 earlier this week, and the Brent rate is now hovering around $105/bbl as the US-Iran imbroglio continues for the sixth month. For India, a crude-importing nation, the big worry is how this impacts the economic dynamics, especially with the Indian Crude Oil Basket (ICB) trading around $120.8/bbl. 

If we see the overall September crude pricing, the domestic basket has averaged around $115-120/bbl, reflecting more than a 35% rise from the June-August period. 

With the nearing festive season and ambiguity surrounding the resolution of West Asia conflict, markets remain sceptical about domestic prices. Financial Express.com reached out to experts to understand the difference between international futures prices and Indian Crude Basket prices and the implications therein.

Indian Crude Basket reflects the physical prices of crude grades that the country actually imports, whereas the international futures prices represent the cost of crude for a particular delivery month. 

For September, the domestic basket has a 77.81% share of Brent Dated (sweet crude) and 22.19% of Oman-Dubai crude (sour crude), according to data published by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell.

Brent crude futures for November were trading over the $105/bbl , while the latest ICB figure was quoted at $120.80. This does not mean that the country is paying around $15 more than the future prices, but states that oil due for delivery in a few weeks costs more than oil due for delivery in the coming months. 

“The futures market assumes this disruption eases. A refiner buying a cargo today does not get that assumption,” said Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research at Kotak Securities.

(Source: Financial Express)