October 9, 2026: India and Canada just opened the fifth round of talks on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), as the latter’s Minister of International Trade, Maninder Sidhu, prepares to lead a Team Canada trade mission to India. Indian Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has called the next 90 days “a very defining period” for two countries whose trade talks restarted just earlier this year. The two governments want bilateral trade to reach CAD 70 billion (~INR 4650 billion) by 2030, more than double 2025’s CAD 30.4 billion (~INR 2060 billion) in goods and services. 

Providing more Canadian oil and gas to support an energy-secure India may seem like an obvious route to achieving those goals, but it is more quick fix than long-term solution. A more strategic approach would focus on areas that provide compounding value: reactors, processed minerals, and finished goods that outlast freight cycles and build industry in both countries.

Why oil and gas alone cannot carry India-Canada trade?
Crude may be a reasonable entry point, but it builds weak foundations for a lasting partnership. India’s imports of Canadian crude jumped 52 per cent in 2025, to 84,000 barrels a day, and the leaders’ March joint statement welcomed more crude, LNG, and LPG. Yet Canada’s Pacific oil terminal near Vancouver loads only mid-sized Aframax tankers, not the long-haul super-tankers needed to keep freight competitive. Most Asia-bound cargoes were transferred to larger ships off California before crossing the Pacific, and a surge in freight rates has only recently changed that calculus. Trade built on bulk molecules is hostage to freight markets, port constraints, and commodity cycles.

(Source: CEEW)